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Charlottesville Real Estate Market 2008
January 11th, 2008 3:55 PM

January, 2008: 

Since 1986 I have been a realtor, and I have never seen a better buying market in the Charlottesville area than the present.  Many factors are converging for 2008 that give me optimism that we will have a brisk real estate market.  There is a window between now and full-blown spring for buyers to step up and maximize what they can buy in a discounted housing market while interest rates are low. 

However, I predict that this will not last long because there is pent-up buying demand that will eat into our inflated inventory within the coming months.  When the inventory trims down, sellers will regain their solid footing and negotiation leverage. 

Area Background:

Traditionally, Charlottesville holds value and weathers downturns in the market far better than most markets, due to its beauty, location and cultural opportunities, supported by the solid economic base provided by UVA and a population that is more affluent and well-educated than the norm. 

Charlottesville attracts intelligent entrepreneurs, top rank professors and students, and retirees who choose to live here because this area is beautiful and strategically located within easy range of the Blue Ridge Mountains, the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic, and several metropolitan areas  (Washington, DC about 2.2 hours and Richmond about 1.2 hours away).  We are blessed with top-ranking medical facilities.  These are some of the reasons prices are higher in Charlottesville than anywhere in Va except for the N. Va. area near Washington.  This explains why we bounce back faster than most areas from downturns in the housing market, translated as blips in the Charlottesville market.

Already I am experiencing a post-holiday rush of buyers and sellers.  I recommend that those considering a purchase give me a call soon so we can benefit from a temporarily discounted market.  And sellers: the time is now to meet and plan preparations to time your listing to hit the market by spring.

Please give me a call to discuss your situation and to schedule whatever time you need to move ahead in this market.  Yates @ 434-996-0888

Posted by Yates Nobles on January 11th, 2008 3:55 PMPost a Comment (0)

Economic stimulus: Loan Limit increase for 2008
January 31st, 2008 2:21 AM
Andy Zemon of Greenwood Lending sent this interesting summary to me yesterday:
 
Yesterday, the US House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed HR 5140 – an economic stimulus package that includes a temporary increase in the conforming loan limit and the upper threshold for FHA loan programs to as much as $729,750 in high-cost areas. The temporary increase would last only until the end of 2008. The bill would also restrict Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration from guaranteeing or purchasing loans above 125 percent of the median home price for a given area. That means that the existing $417,000 conforming loan limit for mortgages eligible for purchase by Fannie and Freddie would not increase in areas where the median home price is $333,600 or less. The problem of course, is that as of right now, no one knows what the median home price is in different markets because this data has never been published by HUD!
Therefore, it would be up to the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development to determine the median home price for different housing markets "as soon as practicable," but no later than 30 days after passage of the bill, relying on existing commercial data where needed. In other words, if median home prices in your marketplace are $336,000 or less, this bill won't really affect you; and there's no way to tell if median home prices in your area are higher than $336,000 until HUD publishes this data. Nevertheless, jumbo relief is certainly on the way for places like California where median home prices are certain to be above $336,000.
Currently, the loan limit for FHA loan programs is between $200,160 and $362,790, depending on the county where the property is located. The proposed higher limits for FHA loan guarantees are also set to expire at the end of this year, unless Congress passes other legislation intended to modernize FHA programs by introducing risk-based pricing and lowering down-payment requirements.
While House leaders thought they had reached an agreement with the Bush administration to include FHA modernization as part of the stimulus package, they agreed to continue working on that issue separately at the administration's request, the Associated Press reported.
In order to make higher limits a reality, the next step is for the Senate to pass the bill and for the President to sign it into law. The target date for final passage set by the White House and Congressional leaders is February 15.
Posted by Yates Nobles on January 31st, 2008 2:21 AMPost a Comment (0)

2007 Year-End Statistical Analysis from lCville area MLS
January 15th, 2008 11:27 PM

2007 Year-End Market Report

The Speed Limit of Real Estate

By Dave Phillips, CEO

Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS®

If you’ve ever driven on Interstate 95, you may have noticed that traffic often moves much faster than the posted limit. You are almost forced to go along with the flow of cars zooming at 75 to 80 miles per hour. Then, just when you are getting used to speed-reading the road signs, the traffic slows back down to 65 for some unknown reason. Suddenly, you feel as though you are going in slow motion, even though you are still moving at a good clip. That same feeling is what we all felt from the local real estate market in 2007.

By historic standards, 2007 will go down as the 4th-best year for real estate sales in our area. That is not a “slow market,” but it sure felt like it after zooming along at 80 miles per hour for the last three years. To be sure 2007 was a very interesting year in real estate – troubling in many ways – and anything but ordinary.

Overview

We entered January at just under 70 miles per hour and maintained that pace until July. Through the middle of the year, we were tracking sales very similar to the record market of 2004. Then the national mortgage crisis put the brakes on the real estate market, and we slowed down to 55 for the rest of the year. By the end of the year, we were back up to 60, but the second half slowdown pulled numbers back in line with sales from 2003. At the time, 2003 was a record year and was the last year we experienced what could be considered a normal speed limit. Starting in 2004, we moved over to the fast lane and accelerated to dangerous speeds – until the market hit the brakes in 2007.

Homes Sold

There were 3,560 homes sold in 2007, which was down 835 (-19%) from 2006. All local areas (Albemarle -19.8%, Charlottesville -17.7%, Fluvanna -22.4%, Greene -33.3%, Louisa -16.8%, and Nelson -25.5%) posted lower sales than the same period last year. Looking at the past six years (see chart below), our region has returned to a sales level just above 2003 – which was a record at the time.

Year-End Sales

County         2002     2003     2004     2005     2006     2007

Albemarle   1430     1509     1725     1973     1678     1346

C 'ville          379       430       546       555       764      629

Fluvanna      587       558       657       639       523       406

Greene         260       256       305       309       291       197

Louisa          143       159       192       241       214       178

Nelson          333       360       374       399       259       193

Area Total* 3370      3541     4155     4673      4395     3560

*includes sales outside the counties listed

New Construction

It is important to note that many “new” homes are not included in CAAR MLS statistics. It is very common for a buyer to contact a builder directly to custom build a home. With that said, the historical perspective of the pace of new home sales gives us a reasonably good picture of the market for new construction. As the chart below shows, new home sales followed the same path as the overall market in 2007. The number of sales in this category ended the year just above the 2003 level.

Posted by Yates Nobles on January 15th, 2008 11:27 PMPost a Comment (0)
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